Trump's Gaza Deal is Doomed to Fail Because We Haven't Learned from the Past

Donald Trump just declared peace in the Middle East, despite ongoing massacres in Syria and Gaza and continued support for terrorism from Iran, Qatar, and other regimes. And Hamas, too—since the terror group has already violated the ceasefire and reignited hostilities with Israel. 

So why didn't the deal Trump called historically exceptional survive the week? 

The unfortunate answer is that in many ways it parallels previous U.S.-brokered Israel-Gaza deals that ended in defeat and renewed terror attacks. If Trump truly wants lasting peace for Israel, he must study and learn from history.

Trump’s deal demanded that Israel, in exchange for the 20 Israeli hostages not yet tortured to death by Hamas, release 2,000 Gazan prisoners—most of them with jihadi sympathies or ties, including 250 life-sentence jihadis guilty of mass murder. A disturbing Israeli government X thread details the numerous bombings, kidnappings, and brutal murders committed by the released terrorists. 

We've seen this movie before. In the 2011 Gilad Shalit deal, Israel traded over a thousand Palestinians for one Israeli soldier—among them Yahya Sinwar, the Oct. 7 mastermind. That single jihadi swapped to Gaza could claim at least 1,200 deaths to his record in a single day. 

How many Israelis will be killed by the 250 released mass murderers in the future? And what can we learn from repeated collapses of "permanent peace" in the Middle East?

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Learning from the Errors of the Past

Some useful facts to keep in mind as Trump navigates the tricky region.

First, the so-called Palestinians are a conglomeration of Arabs who began using that name in the 1960s for propaganda purposes. Second, the modern "Palestinian statehood" movement grew out of the Grand Mufti’s alliance with Adolf Hitler and came to full fruition under the Mufti’s protégé, Yasser Arafat, the father of modern terrorism (see the film The Dragon’s Prophecy). 

Third, the founding of modern Israel was exceptionally legal, legitimizing the rebirth of a Jewish nation on land that God Himself promised in perpetuity to the Jewish people thousands of years before Islam’s invention (see Gen.17:8). 

Fourth, the "two-state solution" was tried—and failed—in the 20th century with the arbitrary creation of Jordan as a Muslim state. Jordan immediately invaded the reborn nation of Israel and destroyed Jerusalem’s Jewish Quarter. 

Fifth, the Palestinian Authority runs a "pay-for-slay" program that financially rewards terrorism. The authority recently told Hamas to "unify with us," so putting any of them back in charge is the same as putting terrorists in charge of Gaza—as usual. 

Finally, Israel is the only truly democratic nation in the Middle East, with equal rights for Jews, Muslims, and Christians. They are always giving favors to their enemies—indeed, the only reason the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Hamas rule in Gaza is because Israel kicked out the Jewish residents and gave Gaza to the Arabs.

With that in mind, let’s dive into the decades of ineffectual American-brokered peace deals between Israel and its enemies. In 1978, President Jimmy Carter helped broker the Camp David Accords, which included plans for a transitional authority involving the anti-Israel Jordanians that would supposedly create autonomous Palestinian authorities in Gaza and the "West Bank," the propaganda term for Judea and Samaria. Less than ten years later, the First Intifada of the Palestinians jihadis—orchestrated by Arafat—cut short over a thousand lives. 

The Palestinian terrorists not only killed Israelis but their own people in great numbers. The First Intifada also gave birth to Hamas, a terror group founded with the explicit goal of wiping Israel off the map, as its charter cited the Muslim Brotherhood’s founder: "Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Islam will obliterate it."

Even less effectual was President Bill Clinton’s Camp David II summit in 2000, when a Palestinian state was proposed and rejected by Arafat, who wanted nothing less than control of Jerusalem. 

President George W. Bush’s "roadmap" for peace in the Middle East was supposed to end the violence of the "Passover Massacre" and the Second Intifada, the genocidal war that destroyed the hopes of the Camp David dreamers. Bush enthusiastically dreamed of an "independent Palestinian state [that] is created with provisional borders and attributes of sovereignty," even suggesting that "the Palestinian leadership continues to act decisively against terror and to build a practicing democracy based on tolerance and liberty." 

It was news to the world that Islamic jihadi regimes believe in liberty, tolerance, and democracy… because there never has been, nor ever will be, an Islamic democracy, as Islam is inherently an intolerant, violent, elitist, tribal religion. Bush also anticipated a "permanent status agreement in 2005," the same year Mahmoud Abbas was elected president of the Palestinian Authority—one who's still running pay-for-slay. Soon after, Hamas swept to victory. So much for the roadmap to peace.

Mistake After Mistake

What did all these American presidents do wrong? 

First, they refused to recognize that this is fundamentally a religious conflict that will continue as long as Islam exists. Islam will never stop attacking Judaism—Allah commands the genocide of Jews. 

Second, the presidents have all operated under the false assumption that Palestinians argue in good faith when they claim they want an independent state. Arabs weren't satisfied with Jordan and have rejected Palestinian statehood offers numerous times. Muslims have 50 nations; yet a single Jewish nation is one too many?

Third, American presidents mistakenly assume that all peoples desire peace and a respite from war. Islam is a religion explicitly designed for aggressive tribes for whom war is a way of life—Islam just adds the extra impetus by designating rape, pillage, and murder as "holy" when dedicated to Allah. That's why Hamas began killing rival Gazan factions as soon as the new ceasefire took place, as predicted by Hamas co-founder’s son Mosab Hassan Yousef, who warned that Palestinian factions would battle one other if they ever stopped fighting Jews. The Gazans see war as a necessity the way we see food as a necessity, except they add a cult mentality into the mix. 

Fourth, each of these presidents thought that they could discourage terrorism if they only offered enough money and material incentives. How Americans could believe that when Gaza is still a cesspool of economic stagnation and terrorism after years of immense wealth pouring in from around the world, I do not know. But Westerners are cultural universalists; we believe, despite all evidence, that all peoples hold the same basic values that we do. Unfortunately, Trump is just as deluded in this as were Bush, Clinton, and Carter, which is why his deal bears startling resemblance to their own.

Not Likely to Succeed

Hamas already broke Trump’s deal by failing to return all of the deceased hostages within the agreed window. And, as noted above, Hamas also started firing on Israeli troops, apparently killing two young soldiers and prompting Israel to strike back. But let’s look at a few points from the deal to understand why it won't last. First, there’s this flight into fantasy:

"Gaza will be governed under the temporary transitional governance of a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee, responsible for delivering the day-to-day running of public services and municipalities for the people in Gaza. This committee will be made up of qualified Palestinians and international experts, with oversight and supervision by a new international transitional body, the "Board of Peace," which will be headed and chaired by President Donald J. Trump, with other members and heads of state to be announced, including Former Prime Minister Tony Blair . . . This body will call on best international standards to create modern and efficient governance that serves the people of Gaza and is conducive to attracting investment."

Tony Blair is a George Soros ally and an insidious globalist in his own right, so his advice is more likely to be a liability than an asset. Blair aside, the Gazans (none of whom are "apolitical") do not want modern and efficient governance. They want Israel to cease existing entirely. 

Second, this transitional authority includes "qualified Palestinians"—the very authorities who've built their political power through terrorism. The deal insists "Hamas and other factions agree to not have any role in the governance of Gaza, directly, indirectly, or in any form." Yet Hamas has already retaken the areas vacated by Israeli troops where they are now holding mass executions. Hamas has said they will not disarm until they have conquered Jerusalem, and as stated above, the Palestinian Authority invited Hamas to join up with them to create the illusion of change. As for the Palestinian Authority's promises to reform, look up the Muslim doctrine of "taqiyya"—it means it is permissible to lie to an enemy to undermine him.

Trump’s deal even uses the jihadi propaganda term "occupy" to describe Israel’s temporary holding of Gazan territories, which were won with the blood of so many young Israeli soldiers—only to be retaken by Hamas after the Israel Defense Forces’ withdrawal per Trump’s deal. And the deal describes a path to "Palestinian . . . statehood," with the help of Jordan, the anti-Israel nation that is itself the original two-state solution. Jordanian and Egyptian police forces are tasked with establishing Palestinian police forces—effectively asking Israel-hating Muslims to train other Israel-hating Muslim jihadis to "keep the peace."

Then there's the danger of releasing 250 life-sentence jihadis, at least 160 of whom have reportedly become automatic millionaires with the backpay they'll reap from Hamas' pay-for-slay program. It turns out terrorism pays.

Former Harvard professor and Jewish Catholic Roy Schoeman emphasized the folly of believing that there are "peaceful Gazans." He shared the viral clip of a huge mob of Gazans celebrating the ceasefire by chanting, "Khaybar, Khaybar, ya Yehud," referring to a 7th century battle in which Mohammad’s forces crushed Jewish tribes—in other words, a military chant equivalent to "kill the Jews." Schoeman emphasized that in fact some of the worst atrocities on Oct. 7, 2023, were committed by Gazan "civilians" who rushed through the torn down fences after Hamas to attack Jews and "have fun." One of those volunteer jihadis was recently arrested in the United States.

This matches testimony from multiple hostages, including Eli Sharabi, the only survivor from his family, who recalled being almost lynched by a mob of Gazan "civilians." Huge crowds of Gazans gathered to gloat and cheer over the coffins of the Israeli Bibas babies. A poll from summer 2024 showed that 80% of Gazans believed that Oct. 7 advanced their national interests. Unfortunately, they were right. Since Oct. 7, more aid than ever has poured into Gaza, multiple Western nations have recognized a "state of Palestine" (which has never existed in history), and dozens of governments and hundreds of institutions have expressed solidarity with Gaza and condemned Israel. Add to that this "peace deal" to bring more investments to Gaza under Palestinian/globalist rule. 

Gaza truly is the real-life incarnation of a society built entirely around the command to kill Jews and Christians in Islamic sacred texts. From the time they are toddlers, Gazan children are taught in school and on TV by cutesy puppets that killing Jews is the most glorious vocation on earth. Their games and summer camps all center around play-acting at terrorism.

Trump’s deal aims to rebuild Gaza with a development plan to turn it into an economic powerhouse. But history shows that if the Gazans had wanted that, then they could have done so long ago with the lavish aid from Qatar, Iran, the UN, and Western nations. 

One of Israel’s countless gifts to the Palestinians was a series of greenhouses. When I was in Israel in 2023, less than a month before Oct. 7 occurred, I saw those greenhouses in the West Bank—turned into looted trash-heaps. We were told that the Palestinians refused even to try to use the greenhouses because they had been Israel’s. No matter how many investments and "job opportunities" Trump brings to Gaza, the majority of Gazans will remain unemployed and dissatisfied. The problem is religious and cultural, not political or economic. Otherwise the tens of billions of dollars that have poured into Gaza over the years would have been enough to build up an economic powerhouse. Instead, Hamas just constructed underground terror bases and the Palestinian Authority built mansions for terrorist leaders.

Trump’s "peace deal" is not historically exceptional, which is why the conflict already began again. The deal is just another iteration of the same short-sighted plan that has failed to end or restrict jihad for decades. If the definition of insanity is trying the same action over and over and expecting a different result, then America’s history of "peace in the Middle East" is profoundly insane.

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