Seth Keshel: This is the GOP's Path to Victory in the 2026 Midterms (INTERVIEW)

Restoration News sits down with one of the Right's leading experts on election integrity and political strategy to discuss the issues and tactics shaping the race to control the House this November.

If there's one rule in electoral politics, it's this: expect the rules of the game to change—and quickly.

Few grasp this better than Seth Keshel, a former U.S. Army intelligence officer and leading expert on election integrity threats, who joined Restoration News for an interview on the GOP's path to victory in November.

Hayden Ludwig: Seth, Democrats have been crowing that the race for control of the House is theirs to lose. Where does it stand now that we're less than 100 days out?

Seth Keshel: History suggests the Democrats should win the House, because since 1934 the average loss for the President's party is 27 seats, with losses occurring 20 out of 23 times. The current Republican majority is just 220 seats to 215.

However, what forecasters are missing is that the congressional maps have been radically redrawn, and as such there are only about 45 seats in play. That's about 10 percent of all House seats. These seats could flip if either side surges, or as part of regular midterm dynamics; but that leaves 390 House seats uncontested—barring an unheard-of blue or red wave.

Ludwig: Recent polling suggests Democrats' lead is slipping. By one count, if Democrats don't enter Election Day with at least a D+4 lead they're likely to fall short of a majority. Is that an accurate read?

Keshel: The generic ballot is less important than it's ever been. It's a lot like the Electoral College—analysts aren't confident a Democrat is guaranteed to win even with a D+5 margin in the popular vote. If control of the House comes down to the 10 percent of House seats in play like I believe it will, Democrats will probably need at least a D+5 popular vote margin to feel confident they have a House majority in the bag. But they'll need to take down a lot of Republican incumbents, which makes their task even harder.

Ludwig: What effect will mid-decade redistricting across the states have?

Keshel: Texas picked up three more guaranteed Republican seats and gave Republicans a chance at winning one more toss-up. Florida picked up one more guaranteed seat, two more that lean Republican, and a single toss-up.

The Supreme Court's Callais decision helped Missouri, Ohio, and North Carolina pick up one additional Republican seat apiece. Democrats are guaranteed to get three more House seats in California, and probably two more that strongly lean Democrat, and in Utah they got an extra seat—early Christmas gift—based on some real scandalous stuff involving a rogue judge.

So add it up and that's 10 guaranteed Republican seats, with more likely gains besides, less four Democrat guarantees and two more likely gains. Altogether that's a GOP pickup of six seats, pending contested races.

Ludwig: You've pointed out that a House majority could come down to control of just five to 10 seats. Give us the rundown on the ones you're monitoring.

Keshel: I expect the party that wins will hold a very narrow 218–223-seat edge, due to the widespread redistricting by both parties. If we assign "leans" status to safe seats, I believe the GOP maintains a 203–209-seat edge in the House. That's before we assess the 23 seats I consider decisive, the ones most up for grabs:

Pennsylvania: the GOP is playing defense in PA-7, PA-8, and PA-10 (all in the eastern half of the state). PA-8, held by Rob Bresnahan, offers the best odds of a Republican hold.

Arizona: the GOP is fighting to hold onto AZ-6, which is going to be a very tough job, and AZ-1, which appears more favorable after the nomination of Amish Shah.

Michigan: I'm watching two Republican-held seats, MI-7 and MI-10, that are both up for grabs. John James vacated MI-10 to run for governor, and it's the safer of the two seats.

Iowa: the GOP is playing defense in IA-1 and IA-3. The first appears to be in serious jeopardy, but the second has better odds of a Republican hold.

The good news is that the Democrats are taking on a boatload of incumbents, giving these Republicans a bit of an edge over their newcomer opponents.

Ludwig: The Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) are rapidly making inroads into the Democrat Party, with the goal of taking over the party infrastructure. The faction operates on a shoestring budget, yet it's proven effective at generating youth and minority turnout in close races. How do you anticipate DSA candidates will fare in the midterms, and what effect will they have on the Democrats overall?

Keshel: The DSA candidates nominated so far are going to win their seats because they're running in places like New York City and Denver. In contrast, I predicted they would be trounced in the Arizona primaries, where their insane ideology would be tested far from liberal cities—and they were. That's already exerting pressure on the John Fettermans of the world, who will have tough decisions to make when their seats are up (in Sen. Fetterman's case, 2028).

I suspect this shift toward the DSA is going to become mainstream in Democrat primaries and crush them in the long run with the general electorate, especially if meaningful election reforms take root.

If the GOP plays the marketing angle well, that could help Republican incumbents this fall. For example, Amish Shah, the Democrat nominee in AZ-1 (northeastern Maricopa County), is a once-moderate legislator who's embraced the DSA agenda. I don't think that's going to help him win his center-right district.

Ludwig: Republicans' number one issue by polling is illegal immigration. The border is sealed, of course, and net immigration is down or even negative. Yet Republicans are struggling to get voters to see that President Trump is still deporting illegal aliens in huge numbers. What's the right message here? Will it work in tight races?

Keshel: I'm always cautious about polling, even when it offers good news. Kris Kobach offers us a cautionary tale from 2018, when he ran as an immigration hardliner in Kansas—obviously not a border state—and lost to a now-two-time Democrat governor.

I've seen polling that suggests voters favor the GOP to handle border security and believe the Trump administration is addressing immigration policy. That suggests voters aren't necessarily shopping for a solution in 2026 like they were in 2024.

So the issue remains relevant, I think, in seats like TX-28 (San Antonio), TX-34 (near Brownsville), and AZ-6 (Tucson). But in battlegrounds throughout the Midwest—which is full of low-propensity Trump-or-bust voters—this won't be a selling point in the midterms.

Ludwig: And the Senate—are you at all worried about losing it?

Keshel: Not at all.

THE LATEST FROM RESTORATION NEWS:

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   WATCH: Here's How Republicans Can Save Elections: Seth Keshel | Restoration Spotlight

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