The Numbers Don't Lie: Violent Crime Is Falling Under Trump
Trump’s first year back in office made the country safer, and 2026 is already outpacing it.
Voters sent President Donald Trump back to the White House to restore order after years of soft-on-crime prosecutors, defunded police departments, and cities that had surrendered to disorder. He followed through on his law-and-order promise, and America is safer than it’s been in decades.
Last year, the national violent crime rate fell nine percent, the largest single-year drop since the FBI began compiling national estimates in 1936. Robbery fell 18.5 percent. Property crime dropped 12.4 percent. Murder and non-negligent manslaughter plunged 18 percent, tying 1955 and 1956 as the lowest level ever recorded.
The best part, though, is that this trend isn't slowing down. Preliminary data for the first half of 2026 show property crime has dropped by roughly 10 percent and murder an additional 23 percent compared to the same point last year. Independent city-level trackers from the Council on Criminal Justice point in the same direction, with homicides in many major cities on pace for levels not seen in a generation.
A Promise Kept
After the 2020 crime spike, entire neighborhoods learned to live with carjackings, open-air disorder, and homicide counts previously unthinkable. Trump ran on ending the war on police, enforcing the law, and stepping in with federal power when local leaders refused to take action. A year and a half in, he’s proving safety isn’t simply a campaign promise.
His administration succeeded on this front because it didn't treat failing downtowns and Democratic-run cities as someone else's problem. Where local leadership failed its voters, Trump sent federal help. The National Guard’s patrolling of Washington, D.C., Memphis, and New Orleans, in particular, became the visible symbol of this shift to law and order.
In D.C., Trump’s “Safe and Beautiful” mission placed Guardsmen in high-traffic corridors, transit hubs, and tourist areas. This caused property and violent crime to plunge. In neighborhoods where street thugs once carjacked in broad daylight, people can now walk safely at night. This year, overall reported crime in the city is down 18 percent year to date, and homicides have fallen 29 percent from an already lower 2025 baseline, according to Metropolitan Police Department data.
In Memphis, overall violent crime is down more than 40 percent since the Memphis Safe Task Force—a combination of local, state, and federal law enforcement, with the Tennessee National Guard—launched last fall. The homicide rate alone has declined 36 percent from its peak after years of bloodshed.
In New Orleans, the Louisiana National Guard has acted as a force multiplier for the local police department. Homicides in the 8th Police District—where troops have patrolled—fell 87 percent, from 15 to 2, compared with the same period a year earlier.
A visible show of force changes motivations. People tempted to steal cars or terrorize law-abiding citizens think twice when uniformed troops are standing on every busy corner.
Getting the Job Done
None of this progress happened by accident. Because of the country’s vastness, it sometimes takes a while before popular angst translates into votes. But when it does, Americans can be counted on to elect leaders who will fix their problems in a generational way. That’s exactly what Trump is doing with the crime problem.
Critics will note that the Guard isn’t single-handedly responsible for lowering the national murder rate. They are partially correct. The crime rate was already in decline after it peaked during COVID-19. But Trump treated disorder as intolerable, not as something citizens would have to weather. He backed officers instead of activists and unleashed immigration enforcement and federal task forces on the criminals driving street crime and drug and human trafficking.
Having a high crime rate is not inevitable for the U.S. Tolerating violence and unsafe streets is a choice. Under Trump, the crime rate is falling to historic lows. He’s accomplishing this by mass deporting foreign criminals, locking up American criminals, and patrolling urban streets with armed troops. All of this makes the criminally prone behave in a much more civilized manner. Voters can rest easy that they made the correct choice in 2024 and should reward Trump with a continued Republican majority this November for making America safe again.
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