Commentary: The Vice Economy Is Selling Young Americans a False Dream
The next generation feels the American Dream is slipping away; now they are turning to vice.
For millions of Americans, including myself, as the leaves change colors and the temperature cools, that doesn't just mean the seasons are changing; it means football is back. However, as fans and families across the nation tuned in to the first few weeks of college and professional football, they noticed something different—the commercials.
A viral post on X that has garnered over 150,000 likes captures the pattern that many have recognized. The post reads "Every single commercial is for alcohol, glp-1, sports betting, or AI."
Those who recognized an uptick in these sorts of advertisements were not experiencing an anecdotal anomaly; prediction markets more than doubled their active television ads in the run-up to the NFL season. Through the first eight months of 2026, spending on television advertisements for all kinds of wagering, including prediction markets, was compared to the first eight months of 2025. Prediction markets particularly benefited from the spike in advertisements and the first NFL Sunday in the American psyche exceeding $3 billion in total trading value.
Prediction markets and sports betting books are central to what has been dubbed the vice economy. The vice economy broadly encompasses industries based on vice: alcohol, cannabis, nicotine, sports gambling, prediction markets, and pornography, among others. The vice economy is not new and impossible to jettison from society; however, the strength and growth of the vice economy in America is an important barometer for the health of the nation.
Sports betting and prediction markets are the latest additions to the vice economy. While both have existed for decades, in the past decade they have exploded in popularity. In 2018, Americans' ability to bet on sports was confined to certain casinos and sportsbooks. The Supreme Court’s decision in Murphy v. NCAA changed that, allowing individual states to legalize and regulate sports betting. In 2018, Americans wagered over $6 billion on sports; by 2025, that figure had skyrocketed to $165 billion. Prediction markets have used technology to make wagering easier and more accessible than ever. Trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket, the industry leaders, has increased from $810 million in July 2024 to $53 billion in July 2026.
Wagering on all things, from sports to politics and even weather, has turned from an occasional activity on a trip to Las Vegas to a popular and increasingly pervasive aspect of American culture.
Like other aspects of the vice economy, the issue is not that these platforms exist they always will; the concern is how often they are being used—and who is using them.
Young men in particular are the target demographic for sports betting and prediction markets; over half of all men under 50 in America have an active account at an online sportsbook. The popularity of sports betting and prediction markets among young Americans is in part due to a feeling of financial dread. Eighty percent of Gen-Z users of high-risk assets such as sportsbooks and prediction markets indicated they were doing so because they feel financially behind and believe higher-risk assets offer a faster way to reach their goals than traditional methods.
The American dream has traditionally meant building a life over time: completing education, finding meaningful employment, saving for a home, finding a wife and raising children. Not only do sports betting and prediction markets offer young men a way to skip ahead, but as homes become more expensive, meaningful employment becomes harder to reach, and dating becomes more exclusive, sports betting, prediction markets, and other vices appear to offer young men an out.
The vice economy purports to offer an easier and more pleasurable life to young men. However, young men entangled in vices, like gambling and pornography, are more likely to consider themselves failures. The vice economy will not provide young men with fulfillment. However, a family, a purposeful career, and a meaningful community will provide young men with fulfillment.
The vice economy cannot be regulated out of relevance. Conservatives have an obligation to offer young men a clear and attainable path to a truly fulfilling life. Young men do not choose the vice economy just because it's easy; many—too many—choose the vice economy because they believe it is their only option.
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