The Left Will 'Fortify' the 2030 Census—Or Face Permanent Defeat
Democrats have one last chance to stave off permanent minority party status. Everything hinges on the 2028 presidential election and the blessings—or curses—that will follow it.
This is the second part of an exclusive new series about the Right's path to generational dominance
Culture wars end when Americans rally around a new consensus. It happened in 1787, 1865, and 1980—years which marked new eras of broad agreement on the republic's future. Every one of them came after years of civil turmoil; but the decades that followed were some of the brightest in our country's history.
The 2028 presidential election could cement America First as the national political consensus for the next generation—if Republicans keep control of the White House. But it's the 2030 Census that will sweep woke Democrats out of Washington and empower the Right to reshape the country top to bottom, coast to coast, inside and out.
Things are already trending our way. And that's why the Left will spend a fortune meddling in the coming census. We know because they've done it twice before.
If the first part in this series was a call to action, the second is a warning—because the Left won't give up America without a fight. Here's what to expect.
'Fortifying' the Count
While conservatives have largely treated the census as an exercise in bureaucracy, leftists have viewed it as an opportunity to expand their power. That's why they spent nearly $160 million tilting the last two censuses in blue states' favor.
Few outside Big Philanthropy have heard of the Funders' Committee for Civic Participation, but it's the Left's central hub for influencing census operations on a massive scale. The network began in the early 1980s as the "Ad Hoc Funders' Committee for Voter Registration and Education" to register "low income communities and people of color." They were doing targeted voter registration drives decades before conservatives.
Today the Funders' Committee encompasses roughly 100 members from across the professional Left: the Tides Foundation, AFL-CIO, George Soros' Open Society Foundations, the National Education Association, and even the union-owned Amalgamated Bank, to name a few.
This is no random smattering of advocacy groups, but the cream of the Left's political funding machine. By my count, these members commanded $11.5 billion in combined expenditures in 2020 alone. Their budgets are likely much larger today.
All share a common goal of registering and turning out likely Democratic voters at a huge scale. I've called this arrangement "Democrats' best-kept secret" because mass registration pays electoral dividends. Research suggests that newly registered individuals tend to vote in the next two to three election cycles, netting six years of votes for a one-time cost. The Left pioneered this get out the vote (GOTV) machine with a massive network of professional GOTV nonprofits funded by tax-exempt foundations. And they did it years before conservatives built their own apparatus ahead of the 2024 election.
The Funders' Committee is the engine powering this left-wing permanent campaign. And beginning in 2010, they turned GOTV into GOTC—"get out the count."
Source: Funders Committee for Civic Participation.
Credit: Capital Research Center.
Restoration News spoke with Scott Walter, president of the Capital Research Center, the leading group mapping the Left's funding and "dark money," about the influence on the 2010 and 2020 Censuses.
"It’s a big problem that few Americans or government officials appreciate how much money and time the Left has spent for decades in order to, ahem, shape the Census," Walter explained.
Funders' Committee members poured a fortune into counting "historically undercounted" people in the 2020 Census. The campaign had two parents: the Funders Census Initiative, which coordinated the members' spending, and the Democracy Funders Collaborative Census Subgroup, part of the now-defunct multi-billion-dollar Arabella Advisors funding machine.
Beginning in 2015, according to Capital Research Center's Parker Thayer, these groups funneled $118 million into 260 leftist organizations "engaged in litigation, advocacy, outreach and other activities." Those "activities" included battling the Trump administration's proposed citizenship question in court. The network rallied more than 300 left-wing nonprofits and backed 50 legal briefs which, they boast, swung Chief Justice John Roberts against the citizenship question in Department of Commerce v. New York (2019).
That was a 5–4 decision.
As for boosting blue state census counts, committee members built "hubs" catering to targeted demographics. They geofenced cellphone data, recruited census workers with automated chatbots, texted census sign-up information to millions of people, and microtargeted "hard-to-count" individuals using voter files—much as campaigns do when turning out voters.
Their success is almost certainly why the Biden Census Bureau overcounted blue states and undercounted red states. "As a result, the Census improperly sent multiple House seats, multiple Electoral College votes, and billions in federal tax dollars to left-wing jurisdictions that didn’t merit them," Walter added. "Talk about a return on 'philanthropic' investment!"
There's no reason to believe the Funders' Committee won't turn its guns on the 2030 Census, Walter warns. "The Left is now spending millions on their third Census fight, which is entirely understandable" given how all the Census Bureau's 2020 errors "all went in the leftward direction."
In fact, the Funders' Census Initiative has already posted its "Funders' Toolkit for the 2030 Census" asking foundations to "invest" in local "Get Out the Count" plans—complete with fill-in-the-blank donation requests, op-eds demanding more census activism, informational one-pagers, and even boilerplate "census fund coordinator" job posts.
Not surprisingly, all of the engaged "partners" are activist groups targeting gay, black, Asian, and urban voters.
If this sounds more like politics than philanthropy, the most shocking revelation is that it's legal. IRS rules permit 501(c)(3) charities to participate in census registration so long as it doesn't cross partisan lines—say, by only registering people who plan to vote for Republicans or encouraging individuals to support Democrats.
This is why microtargeting is so important. It allows groups to bypass strict IRS rules by focusing efforts on demographics: single women, college degree-holders, blacks, gays, and so on. We know these blocs collectively as the base of the Democratic Party.
There's nothing stopping conservatives from engaging in their own 2030 Census registration efforts, by the way. And perhaps they should. But whether the Right goes down that path or not, Republicans must win the 2028 presidential election and retain control of the Census Bureau in 2030—or face a repeat of the 2020 disaster.
Draw Good Maps, Win Close Races
President Trump has the power to shape that fight right now by appointing a Census Bureau director equipped with a plan for a fair and accurate census. But what happens after House seats are apportioned is entirely in the states' hands. And thanks to two April Supreme Court decisions, Republicans are poised to dominate the 2030s.
In Abbott v. LULAC, the Court greenlit Texas and other states to redraw their congressional maps ahead of the 2026 midterms rather than sticking with maps drawn in 2021. Then in Louisiana v. Callais, the justices found that federal law does not require states to carve out majority-minority congressional districts, which long forced states to draw districts based on voters' race.
Either one of those decisions is a major defeat for the Left. Put together, they are a catastrophe that will put Democrats on the path to permanent political exile. Let's explain why.
We've already revealed how the census process can be manipulated to influence how many House seats each state receives (a process called apportionment). But federal law is a powerful force for controlling how states draw those House districts immediately after they're apportioned.
Democrats often howl about supposed Republican gerrymandering. It turns out, though, that Democrat-run bastions in the North and West are the most gerrymandered states in the union. In contrast, Republican-run states in the South have been fighting with one hand tied behind their backs for generations.
Last year, Texas touched off a redistricting revolution by redrawing its congressional map early, rather than waiting for the next census. Thanks to the Abbott decision more red states soon followed suit—transforming 16 Democrat-held House seats in the South into likely GOP gains.
Democrats spent $130 million to claw back five seats in California and won a court case forcing Utah to draw an additional blue House seat. But that still puts Republicans 10 seats ahead in a tight contest to keep control of the House.
That's massive. But it's Louisiana v. Callais that will have the farthest-reaching consequences.
For 61 years, courts interpreted a provision of the 1965 Voting Rights Act as a weapon for mandating racial discrimination in certain congressional districts. Republican states such as Louisiana, Texas, and South Carolina were forced to draw black- or Latino-majority districts that elected Democrats almost without fail. Of the 144 majority-minority districts nationwide, just 23 elected Republicans in 2024.
Louisiana's gerrymandered 6th Congressional District, the majority-minority seat that led to Louisiana v. Callais
It was effectively Affirmative Action for Democratic congressmen in deep-red states.
Edward Greim, the lead attorney who argued the Callais case, believes that was a misinterpretation of the Voting Rights Act. "Over the decades, enterprising plaintiffs convinced many lower courts to misapply the Voting Rights Act to require racially gerrymandered districts," he told Restoration News. "Sometimes courts required heavy-handed racial gerrymanders based on proof of little more than supposedly disproportionate representation of a given race.
"Ironically," Greim added, "that was precisely what the Voting Rights Act prohibited."
In Callais, the Supreme Court overturned this long-standing injustice as a violation of the 14th Amendment's Equal Protection Clause.
"Now, after Callais, anyone who wants to use the Voting Rights Act to justify race-based line drawing will have to satisfy a very clear, updated test that complies with the Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments. This updated Callais test ensures that the Voting Rights Act will be restored to its original goal of remedying racial discrimination, rather than justifying it," Greim explained.
That decision frees southern Republican states to redraw as many as 36 majority-minority districts currently held by Democrats—making three dozen House seats competitive for Republicans for the first time in generations.
Building the Permanent Majority
It's important to note that states are not required to immediately redraw majority-minority districts. Blue states probably won't touch them. Most Republican states won't redraw them this year, or even by 2030.
So it falls to citizen-activists, not courts, to force red state legislatures to draw competitive maps. But the results will compound over years.
Adam Kincaid, executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, told Restoration News the GOP could pick up 11 additional seats if conservatives capitalized on all their remaining opportunities. 2028 targets could include Indiana (2), Georgia (2), South Carolina (1), Kansas (1), Nebraska (1), Mississippi (1), Alabama (1), Louisiana (1), and New Hampshire (1). Even Texas may be able to squeeze out one or two more House seats, thanks to Callais.
None of this will happen if conservatives don't get serious about fighting with every weapon in their arsenal. But we already hold the one card the Left would kill for—we run the Census Bureau right now.
Add it to Abbott and Callais and you're looking at a winning hand. Will we play it?
It's up to President Trump to do the right thing—and bring America's culture war to an end.
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