Midterms: State Legislative Power Is the Invisible Race
Voters will set the chessboard for 2028 by deciding the party leadership in 11 vulnerable states where a trifecta is possible.
The balance of state legislative power is the invisible race on the ballot this midterm election, and for political power brokers, it is the most important thing. Voters drawn to polls for one or two individual candidates should think about the big picture in their state: Democratic or Republican legislative control.
Political leaders love a trifecta; that is, the governor and state House and Senate all led by one party. This cuts down on negotiations. No more reaching across the aisle and honing legislation through compromise. That’s a scary prospect if your party does not hold the power. In that case, the goal is to break or prevent a trifecta, forcing the debate and stalling bad ideas.
State legislatures oversee laws governing election rules, abortion, and many other partisan issues. Voters should understand the makeup of their state legislature and factor it into their decisions at the polling booth. The party elected as secretary of state in most states will make decisions about the 2028 presidential election if there are disputes and challenges.
Republicans have trifectas in 23 states. Democrats have 16, and they want more. There are 11 vulnerable states with split governments. Democrats have put much effort toward gaining total control in these states: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Maine, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Kentucky, Kansas, Arizona, and Nevada.
Pennsylvania Closest
Republicans have not made as much noise about trifectas.
They should watch Pennsylvania, where Democratic incumbent Gov. Josh Shapiro hopes to not only win a second term, but also flip the Pennsylvania Senate to Democrat control, for a state trifecta. It would prove to the national party that Shapiro has command over the party in his state, and the potential to extend that outside state borders. If Shapiro fails to deliver a trifecta, the national party may interpret that as an insurmountable political failure. Shapiro is on a short list of likely 2028 presidential candidates.
Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes are virtually mandatory for a winning presidential candidate. If that isn’t motivation enough, a look at recent history illustrates how desperately Democrats want the Harrisburg trifecta.
Democrats gained a slim, one-seat majority in the state House in 2023 for the first time in many years. Before that, the Democratic governor had two Republican chambers. The era was marked by gridlock; the legislature agreed on a bill only to have the governor veto it, or the governor had a tough time getting the legislature to buy into his agenda.
Since gaining their one-seat advantage, Democrats have paused session days every time a Democrat sneezed—or whenever one of them left a seat in the middle of the term, triggering a special election and leaving the power balance equal.
Today, Pennsylvania Democrats have a 103-100 majority over Republicans.
Republicans have the Senate Majority with 27 members over 23 Democrats.
All that could change once the election results are in. It’s close enough in Pennsylvania to go either way.
Shapiro faces Republican Stacy Garrity, the state treasurer since 2021. Republicans have the power to reclaim a trifecta in state government, but every registered Republican would have to participate for that to happen.
Razor Edge in Minnesota
Things are close in Minnesota too, where the House has 67 Democrats and 66 Republicans.
For a while, the House was tied with 67 Democrats and 67 Republicans. Republican Lisa DeMuth, who was Speaker of the House at the time, was forced to make a power-sharing agreement with Democrats after they staged a struggle session in January 2025.
Republican Rep. Joe Schomacker of Luverne vacated his seat on June 21, 2026, gifting Democrats their tight, one-seat majority.
DeMuth is now minority leader in the House and the Republican gubernatorial candidate, facing Democrat U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar.
The state Senate has 34 Democrats and 33 Republicans
Outgoing Gov. Tim Walz is a Democrat.
Minnesota has a black eye after millions of dollars in fraud exposed in the last year. Voters in the heavily Democratic state could signal their displeasure by flipping the entire state to a Republican trifecta, or continue down the same path.
Michigan and Maine also have close races.
Millions of voters across the nation believe their one vote won’t make much difference. Too many stay home because of that.
But let's not ignore how powerful one vote is in state legislatures. It is enough to swing an entire state in one direction or another.
Millions of dollars have been spent to influence ballot choices on Election Day. Now it’s up to voters to lead their state in the right direction.
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