Virginia Residents Could Pay $500 Million Per Year in Higher Electricity Costs if Democrat Spanberger Wins Gov Race
A multistate carbon tax plan is projected to become more expensive in next few years.
Virginia voters should know that if Abigail Spanberger becomes their next governor, they will be staring back at $500 million in higher electricity costs each year, according to a new report from the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy.
That’s because Spanberger, a former Democrat member of Congress, has pledged to have Virginia rejoin a carbon tax plan known as the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI). Before she can do that, Spanberger must win the November gubernatorial election. Early voting in Virginia began on Sept. 19 and polls show Spanberger with a lead over Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, her Republican opponent. But unlike Spanberger, the Earle-Sears has made it clear she is fully committed to keeping Virginia out of RGGI. Earle-Sears is also running on a platform of lowering living costs.
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A Tax on Carbon is a Tax on Everything
RGGI is a “cap and trade” climate initiative that includes 11 states in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic regions. Government regulators impose an upper limit or “cap” on the amount of carbon dioxide emissions that power plants are permitted to emit. The initiative also creates “allowances” within interstate auctions that may be traded back and forth among companies subjected to the emission caps. Companies that meet or exceed emissions targets may sell any excess allowances to companies that have not done so. This is where the carbon tax enters into the equation. Companies that buy allowances pass the cost of those allowances onto consumers with extra charges on their monthly energy bills. The Thomas Jefferson Institute bases its projections of rising energy costs on the most recent round of carbon taxes RGGI imposed on member states.
The historical trendline is sobering. When the legislation to have Virginia join RGGI passed in early 2020, the carbon tax was $5.65 per ton of emitted CO2, according to RGGI figures. But by the time Virginia entered its final auction in December 2023, that figure had risen to $14.88, a 163% rise in under four years.
Stephen D. Haner, a senior fellow for environment and energy policy with the Thomas Jefferson Institute, notes the current tax of $22.25 is four times higher than it was in 2020—and will continue to rise. Haner, who also authored the institute's carbon tax study, found that if Virginia had remained in RGGI from 2024–2025, the state would have absorbed nearly another $1 billion in carbon taxes.
Gov. Glenn Youngkin, the incumbent Republican governor, withdrew his state from RGGI in 2023, calling it a “bad deal for Virginians.”
“Because of the captive nature of their ratepayers, the ability for power-generators to fully pass on costs to consumers, and the fact that the Code of Virginia dedicates RGGI proceeds to grants programs, participation in RGGI is in effect a direct carbon tax on all households and businesses,” Youngkin explained. “Consumers are unable to avoid the pass through of these costs because they do not have the opportunity to switch electric providers—Dominion and other providers are monopolies in most regions of Virginia.”
Youngkin is leaving office in January as the Virginia governor is limited to serving just one term.
Dominion Energy Virginia was the largest buyer of RGGI allowances, according to the Thomas Jefferson report, and promptly passed the costs onto consumers.
Spanberger's support for carbon taxes is very much in step with the anti-energy posture she assumed as a member of Congress. Spanberger voted against a bill to block efforts to ban gas-powered cars at consumers' expense. She also voted down a bill that called for the U.S. Department of Energy to consider the cost-effectiveness of any new policy standards. Under the legislation, the department would also need to account for how mandated home appliance updates affect low-income families.
Environmental activist groups that favor expensive regulations view Spanberger as a worthwhile investment. Campaign records show the Virginia League of Conservation Voters PAC has contributed more than $800,000 to Spanberger’s gubernatorial campaign so far.
Early voting is open statewide for the Nov. 4 election. The deadline to register or update voter registration, and to request an absentee ballot, is Oct. 24.
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