Power Blackouts Coming to Virginia?

Power blackouts could be coming to Virginia if green energy advocates are permitted to call the shots with a friend in the governor's mansion. Only the veto pen of Gov. Glenn Youngkin, the incumbent Republican governor, stands in the way of polices that would make the commonwealth's energy grid more dependent on unreliable sources of energy. 

(READ MORE: The Iberian Nightmare Forecasts a Future Using Only Renewable Energy)

Holding Virginia's Electricity Hostage

According to an analysis from the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy, Virginia's power generation could be held hostage by "weather-vulnerable, intermittent generation from wind and sun." So says Steve Haner, a senior fellow for environment and energy policy. 

Warning signs from the regional trading entity known as PJM and the North American Electricity Reliability Corporation strongly suggest that Virginia could be positioned to mimic blackouts that gripped parts of Spain and Portugal this past April. Haner identifies the Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA), enacted in 2020, as a key culprit in the disturbing trendlines. He also expressed concern over the possibility that Virginia could potentially rejoin a carbon tax scheme known as the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), which could further add to rising energy costs. Abigail Spanberger, a former Democratic member of Congress now running for governor of Virginia, has expressed support for rejoining RGGI. Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, her Republican opponent, backed Youngkin's decision to withdraw from RGGI in 2023. Energy policy could be the "biggest problem" facing the next governor, in Haner's assessment. But he also expresses concern that neither candidate has discussed energy policy at any length recently. The winner of the Nov 4, 2025, gubernatorial race will likely decide the future of RGGI for Virginia. 

After describing the program as a "regressive tax on families and businesses," Youngkin yanked Virginia out of the carbon tax scheme in 2023.  A circuit court judge ruled last November that Youngkin's actions were unlawful. But the state will remain outside of RGGI pending Youngkin's appeal of that ruling. The legal questions will likely become moot if Spanberger wins and follows through on her pledge to rejoin RGGI.

The blackout scenarios Haner envisions are made plain by this statement from PJM's "Summer Outlook 2025" document that says:  

This season also marks the first time in PJM’s annual assessment, however, that available generation capacity may fall short of required reserves in an extreme planning scenario that would result in an all-time PJM peak load of more than 166,000 MW.

Bleak Assessments for Virginia Energy 

The North American Reliability Corporation has released its own "2025 Summer Reliability Assessment" with equally bleak scenarios that should give policymakers pause in Virginia. That's where Youngkin's veto pen comes into play.

Democratic majorities sought to double down on the VCEA in 2024 session of the General Assembly. But Youngkin blocked legislation crafted to make the already expensive VCEA even more expensive for consumers. Known by some as the Virginia Green New Deal, the VCEA calls for the termination of utility-owned hydrocarbon generation in Virginia and prevents construction of new natural gas plants. As Restoration News previously reported, Haner is expecting an almost 50% increase for Virginia ratepayers within the next two years based largely on the VCEA's green mandates. 

As a member of Congress, Spanberger consistently supported Green New Deal type policies that raised energy costs for consumers. Some key examples included Spanberger's vote against a bill that would have ended efforts to ban gas powered cars at the expense of consumers. Spanberger also voted down a bill that called for the Department of Energy to consider the cost-effectiveness of any new policy standards. Under the legislation Spanberger opposed, the department would also need to account for how mandated home appliance updates affect low-income families. 

These are the same kind of families that would be heavily impacted by blackouts that become more likely if Spanberger reenters RGGI as governor. It was during a podcast last year that Spanberger made it clear that this is what she would do. 

RGGI currently includes 11 New England and mid-Atlantic states where government regulators impose an upper limit or “cap” on the amount of carbon dioxide emissions that power plants can emit. The initiative also creates “allowances” within interstate auctions that may be traded back and forth among companies subjected to the emission caps. The "cap and trade" plan adds a carbon tax to the price of fossil fuels that gets passed along to residents. Virginia joined RGGI in 2020 under Democratic Governor Ralph Northam, who signed off on legislation from the Democrat-controlled General Assembly. With auction prices on the rise, Virginia ratepayers can expect to pay even higher carbon taxes than they did previously under Northam. 

They can also expect to see their state become an even bigger energy importer, which is what happened last time under RGGI. 

Virginia electric generation fell 12% in 2022 compared to 2020 and power imports from the regional grid grew from 12% of demand to 30%, according to public comments delivered in favor Youngkin's decision to withdraw from RGGI.  

Power shortages and blackouts appear to be looming on the horizon depending upon who is the next governor.

(READ MORE: Virginia Ratepayers Getting Smacked with 50% Increase in Electricity Bills Over Next Two Years)