Pollster: Republicans in 'Striking Distance' of Winning New Jersey Governor’s Race
A historically blue state is now viewed as swing state after rising energy prices and unpopular offshore wind projects drag Democrats down.
Voter antagonism toward expensive offshore wind plans that coincide with rising electricity bills are putting New Jersey in play for the Republican gubernatorial candidate, Steve Cortes, founder of the League of American Workers, told Restoration News in an exclusive interview.
Cortes expects affordability to be a central issue in the fall campaign. The Garden State already has some of the highest property taxes in the entire nation along with one of highest costs of living.
Jack Ciattarelli, a businessman and former Republican assemblyman, is running against Rep. Mikie Sherrill, a Democrat House member, now representing New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District. Phil Murphy, the Democrat incumbent, is set to leave office in January after serving two terms. In a sign that the state is becoming more politically competitive, Ciattarelli nearly unseated Murphy in 2021 gubernatorial race.
“I think we’re looking at a very close election for governor in New Jersey again this year,” Cortes said. “Ciattarelli is absolutely within striking distance and he’s running against a really radical Democrat in Mikie Sherrill who is wrong on all the energy issues.”
Cortes, who is also a documentarian, has produced the new film Blown Away: Exposing the Wind Scam that details the economic and environmental problems with wind power. He’s working on a new documentary about New Jersey politics.
“The New Jersey documentary isn’t wind-focused, but it was interesting to me when I was in New Jersey how many people brought up wind to me just organically,” Cortes said. “So, clearly this is an issue that matters. A lot of Jerseyans are angry and rightly so because they take pride in their wonderful beaches, and their great ocean vistas and they don’t like them being spoiled and polluted by these wind boondoggles that are ugly and make no environmental sense.”
The Wind Debacle
Atlantic Shores Offshore Wind, which began as a partnership between Shell New Energies US and EDF Renewables North America, envisioned building up to 200 wind turbines positioned as close as eight miles off the coast of Long Beach Island (LBI), Brigantine, and Atlantic City in southern New Jersey. Although the project is now halted, it could always be reactivated unless the Trump administration moves to revoke the leases. Save Long Beach Island (LBI), a citizen activist group opposed to offshore wind, has sent a petition to Trump’s Interior Department calling on the agency to take this step.
Electricity prices have risen as much as 20 percent in parts of New Jersey further fueling public antipathy toward the wind projects. Current forecasts show the situation is only going to get worse for New Jersey ratepayers. Murphy, along with other state Democrats, have backed offshore wind as did President Joe Biden’s administration, which approved the project.
So where does Sherrill stand?
As a member of Congress, she released a statement in support of offshore wind after the Biden administration began the process of auctioning offshore wind rights up and down the Jersey Coast. The American Energy Alliance, a nonprofit group that supports free market energy policies, has released a scorecard ranking members of Congress in terms of how supportive they are toward affordable energy. Sherrill gets a score of zero—meaning she has been on the wrong side of key votes from the perspective of free market policies.
By contrast, Ciattarelli has been pounding away at what he calls New Jersey’s “energy crisis” in a series of new ads. The Republican candidate’s X account consistently links Murphy and Sherrill with a “failed radical energy agenda” that he has pledged to reverse. On his campaign website, Ciattarelli says he will ban offshore wind farms as governor.
While Cortes acknowledges that New Jersey is often viewed as a “deep blue” state, he sees some encouraging trendlines for Republicans. He notes that Trump came within six points of beating former Vice President Kamala Harris in New Jersey in the 2024 election.
“Trump massively cut his deficit in Jersey,” Cortes said. “He won Passaic County [in 2024], which is part of why I filmed in North Jersey. Passaic is mostly Hispanic, working class, and in the New York metro area. He had lost Passaic by 56% in 2016 but won it by seven points this time [in 2024.] That’s some incredible movement. Working class New Jerseyans, many of whom happen to be Hispanic, are moving right big time. They’re not happy with the Democratic Party of the 2020s and all the radicalism and the lack of affordability. So I think New Jersey is now a swing state.”
Republicans have gained in voter registration during Murphy’s two terms, but Democrats still hold a voter registration advantage of about 860,000, according to state data. But since the number of unaffiliated voters is roughly even with the number of Democrats, statewide elections are sometimes hard to predict.
Polls are showing a single digit race between Ciattarelli and Sherrill with the Democrat out in front. However, Cortes sees another potential wildcard possibly working to the benefit of Ciattarelli: Zohran Mamdani, the far-left socialist running for mayor of New York City as a Democrat.
“Many Democrats in New Jersey are concerned about what they see going on across the river in New York with the mayoral race,” Cortes said. “They are not radical Democrats, they don’t want to defund the police, they are not anti-gun, and they don’t want a pro-Hamas message. So even if Mamdani wins in New York, he could end up helping Ciattarelli in New Jersey.”
The Ciattarelli and Sherrill are set to hold their first debate Sept 21 at Rider University in Lawrenceville, New Jersey.
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