EXCLUSIVE: Hispanic Voters are Pulling New Jersey Right—and May Deliver the Gov Race to GOP’s Jack Ciattarelli

New Jersey appears to be moving right ahead of a critical November gubernatoriall election, thanks in large part to the influence of culturally conservative Hispanics who balk at far-left policies, according to a new documentary from League of American Workers founder Steve Cortes (watch it below).

The shift is particularly evident in once-blue Passaic County, where most of the film takes place, Cortes told Restoration News in an exclusive interview. The documentarian and pollster points to the past three presidential election cycles where Donald Trump gained significant traction over time as a Republican.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton won Passaic County 56–37%. Four years later,  Joe Biden won the county 57–41%. 

Flash forward to 2024, when Trump won almost 50% of the Passaic County vote to Kamala Harris' 47%, a margin of 5,800 votes—a 9-point swing right in a single presidential election cycle.

"Even more remarkable is what happened in the town of Passaic which Trump lost by 52 points to Hillary" in 2016, Cortes explained. "But this time around in 2024, Trump won the town of Passaic, and not in squeaker like he did at the county level. He won the town by plus seven. 

"So, Trump moved something like 59 percentage points on net in a town that’s overwhelmingly Hispanic. Once I saw that, I know I had to go there and talk to these people and see what was happening," he added.

Cortes launched he documentary, "Ethnic New Jersey Moves Right: How to Win the Sopranos & Romeros," September 24. In it, he seizes on the fictional character of Tony Soprano, the mob boss who resided in Passaic County, to tell the story. 

"The fact that Tony Soprano's hometown flipped from blue to red in favor of Donald Trump I think is a fun, interesting nugget," Cortes said. "Most of the Sopranos show takes place in Passaic County, and while it was historically Italian, it is becoming more Hispanic. What I wanted to do with the documentary is tell this story in kind of fun, pop culture way. 

"A lot ethnic groups, particularly Catholic ones, used to be predominantly Democrat, but they have been moving Republican," he continued. "I think Hispanics now are roughly where Italians used to be a few decades ago in terms of making a big political shift from being steadfast Democrats to becoming majority Republican and majority conservative in elections."

New Jersey's rich history and special role as one of the original 13 colonies takes a place of honor in the documentary. Cortes' travels took him to the "Paterson Great Falls," in southern Passaic County, where he describes how Paterson took shape as America's first planned industrial city. As Cortes explains, this was done with inspiration and direction from Alexander Hamilton, a Founding Father and George Washington's right-hand man in the Continental Army during the Revolutionary War. 

Hamilton and Washington, Cortes says, once met at the falls for a particularly robust exchange about what the future of America might look like. 

Although, the "colonial blue blood Washington and the brash immigrant Hamilton" were very different, "they bonded intensely," Cortes says in the film. "And each drove each other to higher planes of greatness forging this entire country as a new nation. Hamilton knew these falling waters could power the mills to build this town and indeed this new nation. Through force of will he created America's first planned industrial city."

But after centuries of manufacturing, the mills and factories that once populated this part of Passaic County are largely gone. 

Cortes pins the blame on "corrupt politicians" who shipped jobs and opportunities over to Communist China, to the detriment of Paterson's American workers. From there, he pivots to New Jersey's tax problem—namely, that the Garden State has the highest property taxes in the nation. 

In fact, as Cortes observes, New Jersey's property taxes are more than three times higher on average than property tax averages across the country. 

Yet even with this avalanche of tax revenues paid for dearly by homeowners, New Jersey is somehow broke and deep in debt.

As a result, the League of American Workers' latest poll shows affordability as the top issue in this year's gubernational election—specifically property taxes and energy prices. 

(RELATED: Rising Electricity Prices Put New Jersey Governor’s Race in Play for Republicans)

Concerns Over Transgender Policies

But in his conversations with New Jersey Hispanics, Cortes also found that cultural concerns were just as dominate.

"Certainly, Hispanics care about financial matters," Cortes told Restoration News. "Statistically speaking, they are not wealthy people, they don't have easy lives, and those financial pressures are very real to them. But when they talked about why they were voting for Trump, they would bring up the issue of sex confusion. This is deeply offensive to them. 

"There's an understanding and respect for authentic masculinity and genuine femininity among Hispanics and anyone who tries to confuse the two, particularly with an agenda toward children, this is something that angers Hispanics as a group."

He added, "If I could tell the Democrat Party about the one item in their agenda that has caused them to lose Hispanic support, I would say it's their agenda of sex confusion, and their rejection of biological and cultural reality regarding the differences between the sexes."

Cortes has reason to believe the rightward shift of Hispanics in New Jersey fits into a larger nationwide pattern. He sees a "radicalized party" alienating longtime constituents. 

"The radicalism that has settled in with the Democrat Party of the 2020s is antithetical to people with traditional values," Cortes said. "We are talking about a radicalism that hates the principles of this country."

While most polls show Rep. Mikie Sherrill, the Democrat candidate for governor, with a slight lead, Cortes views the race as being within reach for Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican candidate. 

"The Democrat's playbook in New Jersey is to not talk about what's going on in the state and to nationalize the election and make it about Trump. But here's why I really do not think this going to work. New Jersey is totally controlled by the Democrat Party and the legislature has been under complete Democrat control for two decades. There's a Democrat machine in New Jersey that's deeply entrenched. 

"So, if people are unhappy with their life, if they're unhappy with affordability, and they think that their streets aren't safe, and they don't think their schools are educating their children very well, they are not going to look at Trump, instead they are going to look at Trenton."

Cortes hopes to see the documentary have an impact across state lines so that more "traditional Democrats" recognize it's not their party anymore and that there is a profound political shift occurring nationwide. 

Watch the documentary here: "Ethnic New Jersey Moves Right: How to Win the Sopranos & Romeros." 

(READ MORE: The Case for a Citizen-Only Census)