American Workers Are Thriving in Trump's Economy
Reducing the supply of immigrant labor increases labor participation and raises wages for Americans
May's job numbers show American workers have reaped the benefits of President Donald Trump's immigration policy. Despite critics' exaggerations of the economic downsides to mass deportations and tariffs, American workers are reentering the workforce, real wages are rising, and inflation is holding steady.
More than a million foreign-born workers have left the workforce since March, thanks to Trump's deportation policy. Many "experts" believed this, coupled with his tariff policy, would cause job creation to fall and the economy to shrink. Goldman Sachs even predicted monthly job creation would drop to 80,000 by the end of the year from last year's average of 168,000.
(READ MORE: Mass Immigration Drives Virginia's Rental Crisis)
Yet, May's labor market data show unemployment held steady, and the U.S. added a solid 139,000 jobs, beating forecasters' expectations by over 10 percent. Additionally, the average wage increased by 0.4 percent since April to $36.24 per hour.
Most economists acknowledge Trump's immigration policies—aimed at shrinking the labor pool by deporting illegal aliens—will raise wages by forcing employers to compete for a smaller labor pool subject to American labor laws. The Federal Reserve, however, feared driving away immigrant labor so quickly, coupled with tariffs, would exacerbate inflation and crater the labor market. So far, neither has materialized.
Inflation is holding steady, rising only 0.1 percent in May, which solidifies real wage gains for workers. Wages are rising steadily, while Trump is grinding inflation to a halt. It also beats analysts' dire predictions following Trump's tariff assaults on countries with significant trade imbalances with the U.S.
So far, the Fed is keeping interest rates in place—likely waiting for the outcome of the 90-day tariff pause on countries that signaled interest in a deal. But in a Reuters poll of 105 economists, most believe the Fed will cut rates in Q3, and 42 percent believe it will cut them again in Q4.
May's job numbers were not stellar. But it is noteworthy that they're this good at the end of the Department of Government Efficiency's (DOGE) chainsaw massacre of federal jobs. Last month, the federal government shed 22,000 jobs, totaling 59,000 cuts since it began.
Laying the Groundwork for an American Workforce
The departure of foreign-born workers is reforming a labor market that prioritizes American workers, reversing years of wage suppression from competition with foreign labor. As many of the illegal aliens and fake asylum seekers who entered during Joe Biden's administration leave, low-skilled Americans stand to benefit the most. It also opens additional opportunities for those wishing to re-enter the labor force.
For instance, most of the job gains in May came in the leisure and hospitality sector, which increased its numbers nearly 150 percent over the past year's average. Restaurants and bars alone added 30,000, beating the entire sector's average monthly growth of 20,000 jobs over the past year.
Another bright spot is the decline in the number of long-term unemployed—those jobless for 27 weeks or more—which dropped over 13 percent, by 218,000. Previously, economists at the San Francisco Fed worried the abysmal long-term unemployment rate could mean the country was headed toward a recession.
But May's job numbers prove the economy was just sick in need of a good dose of deportations.
The Biden administration touted the country's robust jobs growth as evidence of its recovery from the COVID-19 economy. Yet, most of that job growth benefitted immigrants, while capable Americans remained sidelined. It will still take time for the labor market to fully readjust and absorb Americans who want to work. But the May data show why a plurality Americans feel for the first time in 20 years—the country is on the right track.
The departure of foreign-born workers will strain certain sectors. But the May jobs report shows that American labor is available to replace immigrant workers. Any dip is liable to be temporary as the market adjusts away from foreign worker buffet Biden offered employers.
Glenn Valley Foods in Omaha, Nebraska, offers a recent example. Last Thursday—the day after ICE conducted the largest worksite immigration raid in the state so far this year, arresting 76 people and cutting the company's employee force in half—dozens of job applicants filled the waiting are to take their place.
By prioritizing American citizens over illegal aliens and labor over capital, the Trump administration is creating an economy where employers must compete for talent, driving up wages and improving job quality. The steady unemployment rate and rising real wages prove the labor market is strong enough to weather the "shock" of protectionism and losing foreign workers. As more foreign-born workers exit, American workers are filling the gaps, creating a labor market that aligns with the optimism felt by many Americans for the first time in decades.
(READ MORE: Trump’s Plan to Pay Illegal Aliens to Self-Deport is Brilliant)